Schwartz Financial Weekly Commentary 9/5/17

The Markets

When it comes to economic growth, the government doesn’t measure twice. It measures three times.

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its initial estimate that the gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced by a country or region, grew by 2.6 percent during the second quarter of 2017. The second estimate indicated the economy grew by 3.0 percent from April through June. The third and final GDP estimate for the second quarter will become available near the end of September.

The New York Times reported:

“If the economy were to sustain the current pace of expansion, it would be a significant uptick from the 2 percent annual growth rate that has mostly prevailed since the recovery began. A difference of a single percentage point may not sound like much, but the stakes are huge in a $19 trillion economy. The acceleration could also help lift wage growth, which has been frustratingly slow for years despite steady hiring, a surging stock market, and rising home prices.”

While second quarter’s growth spurt was welcome news, it was overshadowed by the devastation wrought by Hurricane Harvey in Texas and across a swath of the Gulf Coast. Initial estimates of the property damage inflicted by the storm stand between $30 and $40 billion, reported Yahoo! Finance.

Historically, hurricanes have impacted U.S. economic growth and Harvey is likely to be no different. An economist from Goldman Sachs explained the usual progression of economic consequences to Yahoo! Finance:

“…major hurricanes in the past have been associated with a temporary slowdown in retail sales, construction spending, and industrial production, as well as a pickup in jobless claims…However, GDP effects are ambiguous, as the level of economic activity typically returns to its previous trend – or even somewhat above – reflecting a boost from rebuilding efforts and a catch-up in economic activity displaced during the hurricane.”

We send our thoughts and prayers to all of those affected by Hurricane Harvey.

Data as of 9/1/17 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 1.4% 10.6% 14.1% 7.3% 12.0% 5.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 0.7 17.4 16.0 0.6 5.5 -0.5
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.2 NA 1.6 2.4 1.6 4.6
Gold (per ounce) 2.7 13.9 0.8 0.9 -4.8 7.0
Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.0 -2.9 3.5 -12.1 -10.3 -6.5
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 0.7 7.0 2.2 8.5 9.7 6.5
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

If you don’t live near your parents and older family members, you may want to learn more about Social Security’s Representative Payment Program (RPP). The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRRBC) published a brief in August that provided some insight into the need for the program:

“Many older individuals with cognitive impairment, including the vast majority of people with dementia, need help managing their finances. For retirees receiving Social Security benefits, the Representative Payee Program can serve as one source of this help. In the Representative Payee Program, a retiree’s benefit is sent to another person (often a relative) who spends it on the retiree’s behalf and submits records to Social Security documenting that the expenditures were in the beneficiary’s best interest.”

Currently, not many people take advantage of the program. More than 10 percent of people who are age 65 or older have dementia, but just 9 percent of that group has a payee.

That doesn’t mean retirees aren’t getting the help they need. Most are, according to CRRBC. Ninety-five percent of people with dementia have someone to help – an unimpaired spouse, nursing home staff, or adult children. Two-thirds have assigned power of attorney to a trusted party.

If your parents are older and you haven’t talked with them about how to handle issues related to finances and aging, it may be a good time to open a dialogue. Daily Caring suggests you, “Approach the conversation around the most important considerations for older adults: safety, freedom, peace of mind, social connection, and being able to make choices.”

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Best thing about being in your 90s is you’re spoiled rotten. Everybody spoils you like mad and they treat you with such respect because you’re old. Little do they know, you haven’t changed. You haven’t changed in [the brain]. You’re just 90 every place else…Now that I’m 91, as opposed to being 90, I’m much wiser. I’m much more aware and I’m much sexier.”

–Betty White, American actor and comedienne

Value vs. Growth Investing (9/1/17)

Name 1-Week YTD 4-Week 13-Week 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year
US Market 1.56 11.80 0.23 2.34 16.36 9.26 14.31
US Core 1.48 12.36 0.85 1.87 17.01 10.37 15.38
US Growth 2.23 19.58 0.59 3.09 19.40 10.04 14.42
US Large Cap 1.48 13.15 0.56 2.87 17.45 9.84 14.29
US Large Core 1.45 14.36 1.51 2.54 19.34 11.48 15.88
US Large Growth 2.12 21.15 0.65 3.32 20.77 10.88 14.85
US Large Val 0.79 4.63 -0.50 2.63 12.36 7.12 12.22
US Mid Cap 1.56 9.50 -0.48 0.89 13.79 7.91 14.74
US Mid Core 1.44 9.37 -0.45 0.37 11.66 7.86 14.53
US Mid Growth 2.28 16.04 0.51 2.39 15.86 7.57 13.22
US Mid Val 0.87 3.25 -1.64 -0.21 13.75 8.21 16.50
US Small Cap 2.41 5.05 -1.08 1.02 12.72 7.04 13.20
US Small Core 1.89 2.89 -1.71 -0.23 11.12 6.94 13.30
US Small Growth 3.40 13.46 0.10 2.65 15.29 8.14 13.10
US Small Val 1.91 -0.86 -1.68 0.58 11.42 5.97 13.10
US Value 0.88 3.97 -0.81 1.92 12.62 7.28 13.16
 ©2004 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar; (2) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Morningstar is not responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information and has not granted its consent to be considered or deemed an “expert” under the Securities Act of 1933. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and while these indices can be invested in directly, this is neither a recommendation nor an offer to purchase.  This can only be done by prospectus and should be on the recommendation of a licensed professional.

  Office Happenings:

Have we seen the beginning?

For the first time in all the months I have been forwarding our monthly 401k breakouts to clients and prospects, I have called for a new equity/non-equity allocation for 401k positions.  Is this the beginning of the pull back from market highs, we will not know that answer for some time.  It could be a short term event or not.  If you had contacted our office asking for this free information, over the holiday weekend you would have received the below customized for your 401k at work.  It is not too late to maximize what could and should be the largest asset you own besides your home.  Contact our office and let us help you get the most out of your 401k plan.

Neil Andersen Sept 403b_Page_1

 

Regards,

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC®, CWS®, CFS

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

 

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC., a registered broker-dealer and investment advisor.  Member FINRA-SIPC. Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group are unaffiliated entities.

 

This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any security. The information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed.  Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.  An Index is a composite of securities that provides a performance benchmark.  Returns are presented for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to project the performance of any specific investment.  Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

* The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices. 

 

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

 

* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

 

* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

 

* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

 

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

 

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

 

* Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

 

* To unsubscribe from our “market commentary” please reply to this e-mail with    “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at “mike@schwartzfinancial.com”.

 

Schwartz Financial Weekly Commentary 8/21/17

The Markets

Here, there, and everywhere…

Markets around the world appear to be benefitting from global economic recovery.

After pointing out the United States’ economy is the heart of the global financial system, Barron’s reported:

“The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has tirelessly amassed 30 record closes this year, but is up just 1.2 percent since March 1. Meanwhile, nearly every foreign stock market has sprinted ahead…We wrote on March 25 about how a global recovery should goose smaller, fresher bull markets abroad. By now, it is firmly becoming the consensus view – metals are rallying, with copper up 18 percent this year; the MSCI All Worlds Index has risen for eight straight months.”

Emerging markets haven’t performed too shabbily either. Through the end of last week, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up 22.88 percent year-to-date. Franklin Templeton’s Mark Mobius wrote improved performance in emerging markets is the result of “…encouraging economic data in China, investor inflows, and corporate earnings growth.”

So, global stock markets have been delivering relatively robust performance this year.

What have bonds been up to? They’ve gained value year-to-date, too.

Bond markets continue to tell a different story than stock markets. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the third time in June. In theory, interest rates should be moving higher, yet the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was lower (2.19 percent) at the end of last week than it was at the start of the year (2.45 percent).

Data as of 8/18/17 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) -0.7% 8.3% 10.9% 7.2% 11.3% 5.3%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 0.3 15.4 12.5 0.2 4.8 -0.1
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.2 NA 1.5 2.4 1.8 4.6
Gold (per ounce) 0.8 11.8 -4.0 0.0 -4.3 7.0
Bloomberg Commodity Index -0.6 -4.9 -4.1 -12.7 -10.4 -6.4
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 0.3 4.1 -0.8 7.6 9.5 6.5
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Have you tried taco mode? In March, the Harvard Business Review (HBR) offered some ideas about innovation in America. It’s a topic that deserves some attention as “…recent data suggests that innovation is getting harder and the pace of growth is slowing down. A major challenge in business and policy spheres is to understand the environments that are most conducive to innovation.”

One place to look for examples of innovation is the sharing economy where innovations often echo the late 1800s. Back then, according to HBR, innovation primarily occurred outside of companies. In contrast, today, the majority of patents go to inventors who are associated with companies.

Let’s take a look at a couple recent ideas that may or may not gain traction:

  • Taco Mode. Ridesharing – arranging for a ride via an app – has changed transportation and become one of the industry’s fastest growing market segments, according to data from Statista reported by com.

 The latest rideshare innovation is Taco Mode. Hungry passengers can request rides that include stops at a fast food chain drive-throughs. One company executive described the option as ‘inverse delivery.’ The hungry are delivered to the food rather than vice versa.

  • Just-in-time watch rentals. The demand for Swiss watches has fallen off in the United States. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported exports to the United States dropped steadily (-9.6 percent) between 2015 and June 2017.

 Could the culprit be luxury watch rentals? Barron’s Penta reported luxury watch rentals are a relatively recent sharing-economy innovation. For a monthly membership fee of $149 to $999, watch lovers have opportunities to “…access experiences and embark on journeys otherwise unattainable – without having to spend a major chunk of their savings.”

  • Neighborhood networks. It’s a straightforward concept: A social network that connects neighbors so they can share tools, leftovers, playgroups, and more. It’s big in Brazil, according to Forbes. One company has more than 140,000 registered users across 3,800 cities.

But, anyone who has ever watched Homer Simpson borrow Ned Flanders’ tools and not return them understands why some aspects of this idea may not catch on.

What innovations would you like to see in the sharing economy?

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time less than triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenuity, a market system, a tide of talented and ambitious immigrants, and the rule of law to deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers.”

–Warren Buffett, Oracle of Omaha

Value vs. Growth Investing (8/21/17)

Name 1-Week YTD 4-Week 13-Week 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year
US Market -0.61 9.18 -1.50 2.81 13.04 9.01 13.60
US Core -0.57 9.93 -1.42 2.65 13.82 10.07 14.72
US Growth -0.42 16.10 -1.75 3.45 15.28 9.61 13.65
US Large Cap -0.54 10.70 -0.91 3.48 14.19 9.63 13.65
US Large Core -0.47 12.08 -0.74 3.55 16.08 11.20 15.28
US Large Growth -0.44 17.92 -1.39 3.99 16.57 10.48 14.14
US Large Val -0.72 2.76 -0.55 2.82 10.06 7.18 11.61
US Mid Cap -0.67 6.67 -2.63 1.39 10.50 7.68 13.91
US Mid Core -0.66 6.75 -2.68 0.93 8.67 7.60 13.74
US Mid Growth -0.18 12.18 -2.28 2.08 12.14 7.16 12.37
US Mid Val -1.23 1.25 -2.98 1.13 10.70 8.23 15.68
US Small Cap -1.21 1.26 -4.34 0.05 8.68 6.35 12.20
US Small Core -1.30 -0.33 -4.39 -0.94 7.97 6.37 12.40
US Small Growth -0.86 8.57 -4.20 1.56 10.66 7.24 12.06
US Small Val -1.48 -4.17 -4.43 -0.51 7.08 5.36 12.04
US Value -0.87 1.98 -1.30 2.25 10.03 7.29 12.4

©2004 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar; (2) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Morningstar is not responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information and has not granted its consent to be considered or deemed an “expert” under the Securities Act of 1933. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and while these indices can be invested in directly, this is neither a recommendation nor an offer to purchase.  This can only be done by prospectus and should be on the recommendation of a licensed professional.

Office Happenings:

When Was The Last Time You Stress Tested Your 401k

Your 401k plan at work probably has the most money you have besides your home, but yet, when was the last time you looked at it besides the quarterly statements you receive.  Better yet, how did you pick your investments that you currently hold in your 401k.  How much thought did you actually put into deciding which investments to choose?  Probably like people going to the racetrack who pick horses to bet based on the color of the silks the jockey wears or simply the name of the horse, people pick investments just based on the name of the funds themselves.

So why, in nearly every case, do investors do almost no research as they put their money into their 401-k plan? It is a simple answer; everyone is busy living their lives.  If they wanted to spend their free time digging into the standard deviations, alpha, fund objective vs the current economic environment, tenure of the portfolio manager, consistency of the fund company and a hundred other arcane things, they would be working in the financial field.

One of the tools we have available is a software program that in about five minutes gives a remarkably accurate picture of an investors risk tolerance.  Fortunately the program also has a database with the risk scores of most of the securities that are offered in 401-k plans.  So we are able to see the estimated risk in an investor’s current portfolio and compare it to his or her actual risk tolerance.  We can then suggest ways to adjust the current portfolio to better reflect what our investor’s comfort level.  We can also run Monte Carlo simulations to predict the performance of the new portfolio and how well it should meet your retirement needs.

Give our office a call at 215-886-2122 and we will be happy to stress test your investments and let you know if your investments are in line with your risk tolerance.

Regards,

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC®, CWS®, CFS

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC., a registered broker-dealer and investment advisor.  Member FINRA-SIPC. Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group are unaffiliated entities.

 

This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any security. The information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed.  Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.  An Index is a composite of securities that provides a performance benchmark.  Returns are presented for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to project the performance of any specific investment.  Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

* The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices. 

 

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

 

* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

 

* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

 

* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

 

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

 

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

 

* Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

 

* To unsubscribe from our “market commentary” please reply to this e-mail with    “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at “mike@schwartzfinancial.com”.