Schwartz Financial Weekly Commentary 2/5/18

The Markets

It was not a good week for stocks.

Last week, stock markets around the world lost value. In the United States, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500), Dow Jones Industrial Index (Dow), and NASDAQ all finished lower.

Some pundits have been drawing comparisons between the performance of the Dow last Friday and Black Monday, the memorable day in 1987 when the index shed 508 points in a single day.

They may be barking up the wrong tree.

Yes, the Dow lost more than 600 points on Friday. That was about 2.5 percent of its value. On Black Monday a lesser drop equated to a 22 percent loss for the Dow. In addition, Black Monday was widely attributed to program trading gone awry. The culprit behind last Friday’s fall is likely to be bonds, according to Barron’s.

Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced it would begin selling more short-term government bonds to fund the rising budget deficit. That sparked concerns about the impact of a bigger bond supply on interest rates. When bond supply exceeds demand, interest rates typically go up to attract investors. The United States already has ample bond supply since the Federal Reserve curtailed its bond buying program. Financial Times reported:

“Equity investing involves a delicate balance of three things: earnings, interest rates and valuation. Over the past decade, low long-term bond yields have played a crucial role in helping elevate equity valuations… ‘You have to consistently show economic and earnings growth to justify these valuations at higher rates,’ says Nicholas Colas, cofounder at DataTrek. ‘People forget how closely tied economic and profit growth is to rising rates – it is a horse race and profit growth has to win – even if just by a little.’”

News about employment and wage gains added fuel to the fire of investor worries. In January, the United States experienced its strongest wage growth since 2009. While that’s good news for workers, it may cause the Fed to raise rates more aggressively in an effort to keep inflation manageable.

Data as of 2/2/18 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) -3.9% 3.3% 21.1% 11.0% 13.1% 7.2%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. -2.9 3.9 21.9 7.0 5.0 0.9
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.9 NA 2.5 1.7 2.0 3.7
Gold (per ounce) -1.6 2.7 8.9 1.5 -4.4 4.1
Bloomberg Commodity Index -1.9 1.1 0.8 -4.2 -9.0 -7.4
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index -2.9 -5.7 2.5 2.7 7.7 6.9
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

what does success mean to you? For some, having a big following on social media translates as success. NASA, which has more followers than any other government organization worldwide (28 million), may be considered successful. Of course, NASA doesn’t hold a candle to Katy Perry, who has close to 106 million followers.

It will surprise few to learn the U.S. Treasury, which manages the money resources of the United States, doesn’t have many followers (770,000); however, it has more than the Federal Reserve (446,000).

It’s almost enough to make you wonder whether Americans care about money. They do, but on a more personal level. A corporate survey, Making It in America, queried Americans about what it means to reach “…a level of success, comfort, and security that you find wholly satisfying.” As you might expect, there were a variety of answers.

One gauge of success is income, according to about two-thirds of the respondents. The group’s average income was $57,426 a year. They would know they’d ‘made it’ when they earned about $147,000 a year. According to CNBC, annual income of $150,000 would put many people in the middle class, depending on where they lived and the size of their households. It’s notable few people aspire to join the ranks of the wealthiest Americans. More than three-fourths said they would not want to earn more than one million dollars a year.

Of course, money is not the only measure of success. A Pew Research study found just 11 percent of those surveyed thought wealth was an essential part of the American dream. Far more important were:

  • Freedom of choice in how to live (77 percent)
  • Having a good family life (70 percent)
  • Retiring comfortably (60 percent)
  • Contributing to their communities (48 percent)
  • Owning a home (43 percent)
  • Having a successful career (43 percent)

One participant said, “Even though I truly believe that having money is freedom, money is really just a tool to make experiences in life possible.”

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“You can’t reach for anything new if your hands are still full of yesterday’s junk.”

–Louise Smith, NASCAR driver

Value vs. Growth Investing (2/2/18)

Name 1-Week YTD 4-Week 13-Week 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year
US Market -3.77 3.19 2.35 7.32 22.80 12.96 14.90
US Core -3.77 1.56 0.80 5.66 20.49 12.37 15.02
US Growth -3.21 6.22 5.10 9.92 32.50 14.30 16.46
US Large Cap -3.72 3.79 2.92 7.73 24.85 13.65 15.29
US Large Core -3.84 1.77 0.93 5.45 21.93 13.10 15.57
US Large Growth -3.11 7.20 6.01 11.00 35.27 15.34 17.53
US Large Val -4.25 2.34 1.76 6.71 17.72 12.46 12.74
US Mid Cap -3.90 1.96 1.19 6.78 18.62 11.34 14.24
US Mid Core -3.65 1.18 0.67 6.34 18.42 10.60 14.00
US Mid Growth -3.50 3.96 3.01 7.73 25.70 11.30 13.54
US Mid Val -4.55 0.71 -0.14 6.26 11.75 12.02 15.16
US Small Cap -3.85 0.56 -0.21 4.52 14.32 10.47 12.64
US Small Core -3.40 0.50 -0.21 5.88 13.45 10.68 12.84
US Small Growth -3.42 2.45 1.57 4.87 23.75 11.88 13.47
US Small Val -4.74 -1.23 -1.95 2.83 6.01 8.72 11.51
US Value -4.34 1.76 1.11 6.35 15.71 12.13 13.17
2004 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar; (2) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Morningstar is not responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information and has not granted its consent to be considered or deemed an “expert” under the Securities Act of 1933. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and while these indices can be invested in directly, this is neither a recommendation nor an offer to purchase.  This can only be done by prospectus and should be on the recommendation of a licensed professional.

 Office Happenings:

Questions???

Have questions about the new tax law or have questions about last week’s stock market then come join us Thursday, February 22nd for dinner and a presentation on the above.  Please RSVP no later than February 15th.

2018 Workshop1

Regards,

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC®, CWS®, CFS

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC., a registered broker-dealer and investment advisor.  Member FINRA-SIPC. Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group are unaffiliated entities.

This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any security. The information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed.  Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.  An Index is a composite of securities that provides a performance benchmark.  Returns are presented for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to project the performance of any specific investment.  Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

* The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices. 

 

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

 

* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

 

* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

 

* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

 

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

 

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

 

* Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

 

* To unsubscribe from our “market commentary” please reply to this e-mail with    “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at “mike@schwartzfinancial.com”.

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